Blog: Week 24, June 15 (Daily)
Your author is embarking on a summer sabbatical from the home office in Haida Gwaii. A road trip. The Moody Field board is too large to bring along. I will track the tag positions on paper, to create field pictures of the summer days on return in mid-September, if warranted. Will post the two-week field sheets as completed if anyone requests that.The time on sabbatical will focus on finding patterns of field positions in relation to subsequent price action. Daily changes, oscillations during a swing, and the relations between changes in trend and position. 1.5 years of Moody Field daily pictures are available for study. Maybe also inspect individual sector tag activity. Would be great to have a helper!
Blog: Week 23, June 8 (Daily)
The anomaly noted on May 30 resulted in a rally for a few days this week. The S&P and Nasdaq indexes achieved new highs. The field however remains in red trend. Fewer stocks are rising than were a while ago. The median for S&I remains above 50, so over half of the stocks are still rising. But 'rising' is defined at Moody Field in two different ways, see the 'Tech' page. The median of the Cars ended the week at 42. Stocks are backing off from recent price levels.
Blog: Week 22, June 1 (Daily)
This website was created Jan 2, 2024. Since then it has been updated each trading day and weekend. I write as though 10,000 people were interested and avidly reading and thinking thru the indications. The reality so far is that the home page receives 10 to 15 pings a day from bots, and the Daily page gets approximately one hit per day - me checking that day's upload. Readership is presently nil. I carry on because the Moody Field is working, and making money.
The picture at left updates the picture from May 4. Back then, the Trend and Position lines were rising from a low level, suggesting potential for a rise. That occurred. This week the T&P lines dropped, suggesting a bearish stance. Read the daily reports this week for run-time comments.
The picture has three charts. Top is the S&P, middle is trend, and bottom is position. Cars are green, S&I are black. S&I Trend is now at 27 while S&I Position is still at 56. The limited history at Moody Field suggests that the position approaches the trend level before a meaningful price turn occurs (both upside and downside). You can see that lag effect thru the drop in early April, and again on the rise thru early May.
Blog: Week 21, May 25 (Daily)
Many factors changed but none by much. As mentioned Monday (May 20), this week was the North American spring relax-from-business week, with a markets-closed long weekend at each end.
Blog: Week 20, May 18 (Daily)
The bull swing keeps trundling along. All the major indexes scored record new highs this week.Thirty of the thirty-one tags on Moody Field are green. That means increasing numbers of stocks, across all sectors, are rising. Rising stocks tend to beget more rising in an enthusiam event. The present trend is universally upward, with rising enthusiasm.
Update: The head coaches mentioned last week have all turned green. They remain in conservative positions relative to full-blown enthusiasm. Room to rise! The trend and position (green and black charts) shown two weeks ago continue to rise. Another week or two, on the slope of the position chart, to full enthusiasm.
Blog: Week 19, May 11 (Daily)
The thrust described last week carried on, with Dow up 2%, S&P 500 up 1.9%, and Nasdaq up 1.1%. Not a spectaculat rise, but Dow is leading so the rising tendency is intact.Waiting for the head coaches to start moving up the field with their players. That means the smaller stocks joining the large stocks in the rally. Presently the 'all listed stocks' tags for the three exchanges, NYA, NAZ, and TSX, remain red. They are close to turning green. Need NAZ over 50 (now 49.5) and NYA at 60.
Blog: Week 18, May 4 (Daily)
Hello. This week Moody Field changed from bearish to bullish, see the Daily comments. Tags are turning green, and rising from the midfield, rather than from the end zone. Many red tags have been left behind among the Extras in the sad 30 to 50 zone.
On Wednesday May 1 the Fed annonced a slowing of the rate of QT. Markets were at a low, and blasted upward on the news. An hour later, Chairman Powell spoke about the Fed's current thinking and plans. Markets dropped back to the prior low in late trading. The next day markets opend gap up, sold down to the low again, and then rallied right back. May 3 saw a big price gap higher that held all day.
The actions of the sentiment tags on the field concur with that technical upward thrust. Also, the bond markets appear to have bottomed with increased trading volume over the past two weeks. That means interest rates are likely to decline for a while, which is bullish for stocks. Moody Field does not indicate how long the bullish sentiment will last. Normally swings run for a month or two.
Something new! The picture at left shows the S&P 500, with trend (upper panel) and position (lower panel) below it. The green line is Cars, the black line is S&I. Click the picture to see a zoomable version going back to January 2023. Notice how the trend shown here dropped after Apr 1, while position did not start dropping until a week later. Trend has been rising since Apr 22, while position is just getting started.
The sixteen-month history linked above is sketch, with scribbles. The data shown is weekly, on Mondays. A few sections are daily. All days are available if you can encourge me to make them available! Click the image wherever you need detail, and use arrow keys to move around.Daily detail in March 2023 shows the initiation thrust of a nice move. The Cars agreed with S&I. 'No Data' was a trip to the Yukon. Oct 9~16 shows how you can get faked out. First week of November has a thrust worthy of note. etc....
Blog: Week 17, Apr 27 (Daily)
The markets had a natural, partial recovery after two down weeks. The technology tags, NDX and INFO, rose enough to turn green, which made the game ball rise above 30. Median tag positions remain at midfield (50), after four months in the 65 to 70 range. Usually median tags at 35 or below present a decent buying opportunity.
Blog: Week 16, Apr 20 (Daily)
The S&P 500 moved lower every day this week, for a 5-day loss of 3%. The Nasdaq lost 5.5%, while the Dow actually gained on the week. It seems that the Moody Field indications of the past two weeks were valid. The field has been warning of imminent decline since Apr 4.The situation remains the same as last week. A majority of tags are red, moving lower, while field positions are about the 50 level, with downside room. Usually field positions drop toward 35 on a normal reaction, and below 20 toward the end of a bear swing. Presently long-term interest rates are elevated, competing with dividend yields, and the Federal Reserve continues quantitative tightening at a steady pace.
Blog: Week 15, Apr 13 (Daily)
Markets moved lower again this week, led by the DJI, not the Nasdaq.On the field, only four of the thirty-one tags are rising in green. The game ball has plunged from over 80 to under 20 during the past two weeks. Last time it did that, over a three-week period in early Aug 2023, market prices continued lower, in three waves, to a bottom at the end of October. This time the change in sentiment was more abrupt. The tags remaing green, and still rising, are Gold and Energy. Moody Field is now showing a very bearish picture. The trend is pointing sharply lower, while the median tag is still well above 50.
Blog: Week 14, Apr 6 (Daily)
This week had disappointing sentiment activity each day. Read the daily reports. Most Cars turned red, and the S&I tags went from three red to thirteen red. During the week, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq each fell less than 1% in price. Price averages are not yet declining, but an increasing number of stocks have quit rising. The field condition now is reminiscent of the August 2023 top. See the 2023 link in the header bar.Meanwhile, the price of gold hit a new record high every day this week. Oil prices also closed higher every day this week. Food (wheat and soybean) prices appear to be bottoming, and jumped up Friday. These price patterns suggest resurgent inflation expectations.
The Federal Reserve continues reducing their balance sheet by about $10B per day. The ten-year interest rate made a new high close for the year on Friday. These changes are reducing liquidity available for new stock purchases.
Blog: Week 13, Mar 30 (Daily)
Market sentiment is now happy to exuberant, with no danger signs yet. Remember that Moody Field is a very slow-moving indicator. Two or three buy signals, two or three sell signals per year. That means 2.5 months on average between signals. In reality my experience is signal turns occur sometimes after a month, sometimes after six months. The last buy signal was early November, 2023. The market has run up for five months since then.A buy signal comes when the tags are well to the left, preferably deeply despondent, and then tags start turning green. A sell signal comes when the tags are well to the right, exuberant, and then tags start turning red. The present condition is green tags entering exuberance. Sentiment continues rising.
Blog: Week 12, Mar 23 (Daily)
Not much to say this week. The Fed QT continues. The Fed held rates this week and spoke bullish words. Gold prices are holding their breakout above 2000 so far, but the gold tag is not rising much. The Crypto tag made a sharp drop. The USD continues rising, along with longer-term interest rates. An inverted yield curve has been in place now for a year.
Blog: Week 11, Mar 16 (Daily)
The statistical panels were changed this week. The Sector and Index tag summaries are now separated. The front panel is now the moves today, and you need to click the panel to see the field trends and other stats. Comments on that? Was nice to be able to scroll down for Jan and Feb seeing trend and positions change. Maybe make a little movie, with a sub-window and an arrow tracking an SPX chart.Also, the racing flags, which show the trend of the Cars and regularly run up to 100 and down to zero, are scaled so they run instead between 25 and 75. Like celsius to farenheit, the formula is (#green X 5.55) + 25. Same info, but calmer moves, and the flags now stay within the crowd of cars on the field. [ed. note. changed back to 0 ~ 100 within a month, to match scale with the game ball.]
Blog: Week 10, Mar 9 (Daily)
The gold miners tag turned green on Mar 4, after spending a long time in red as the only S&I tag under 30, ie. despondent. The change happened as the bullion price rose for a second day. Strong volume traded and prices continued rising during the week. The field condition is presently bullish for gold stocks - the tag is in green, still at a low level, with a good-volume impetus to the rise.
Blog: Week 9, Mar 2 (Daily)
Moody Field continues strenghening. Looking back, at Week 2 the blog discussed the possibily of a cheery rally into springtime. Trying to be logical without properly understanding the field yet, I took the pessimistic side twice and lost money both times.When a tag goes green, and advances, it means that an increasing number of stocks in that group are rising, making new highs. The S&I tags have been steadily increasing in green since Feb 21. At this point the tags seem to be running toward exuberance, which may take another month or so.
Blog: Week 8, Feb 24 (Daily)
Shorts are closed again, with another small loss.Starting to think this Moody Field is just a reflection of the current situation, and not a predictor of the future. Interpretation is required. For example, right now the Sectors have lots of green in the happy zone. Many Cars and Indexes are still red, but also sitting in the happy zone. Does that mean they are preparing to run to exuberant? Maybe. The field shows that 60% of stocks are rising, but not whether they will keep rising.
Blog: Week 7, Feb 17 (Daily)
Markets dropped Tuesday in response to a higher CPI number. The markets bounced almost back the following two days, until the PPI number on Friday added to the disappointment. On Friday, I resumed the short position that was closed back in Week 3. Repurchased at 10% lower prices.Blog: Week 6, Feb 10 (Daily)
Another boring week.Blog: Week 5, Feb 3 (Daily)
The cars are worthy of note this week. Seems they all move together. All up on two days, all down the other three days. They ended the week at a lower field position than where they started, and in a red trend.The daily notes about field action are getting more bearish, even as the indexes hit new highs. Certain dilettantes are rising. The rest of the stock market valuations appear to be weakening.
Blog: Week 4, Jan 27 (Daily)
Very little movement or tag changes this week. The Cars are holding a green trend, with positions in the happy zone. The S&I tags remain majority red, but are not falling further.The US Fed is scheduled to hold a policy meeting next week. The pace of the Fed's quatitative tightening has noticeably slowed since the start of the year.
Blog: Week 3, Jan 20 (Daily)
Must respect price action! The short position, buying SPXS and FAZ, was based on observing the field. Increasing red at a high position level. As the price decline progressed, bot more at gradually higher prices. But the market went the other way. The positions were closed Friday morning, on stop, 2.4% loss.The key to anticipate the change this time was the Info tag, which turned green on Jan 16, while other tags kept turning red for two more days. Info held green around 70 all week, and Friday moved to 76. Lots of room ahead if its going to be a 90-percenter.
The forecast in the second paragraph below is underway so far. A spring of enthusiasm, a rising mood, can push all the tags above 80, many above 90, and even the NYA tag to 75 plus. Happens a few times per decade.
Blog: Week 2, Jan 13 (Daily)
The number of S&I tags in an Up trend has declined from all (22) at year-end, to now only 12 green. Six of the eight index tags are still green. The Nasdaq rose all five days this week, each day a little less. Meanwhile, the NDX tag turned red Jan 2. The NDX tag has been steady since then, red in the exuberant zone. It seems in this case the fact the tag held above 70 was more important to observe than the red trend.It could be that, like the NDX case, having ten reds on the S&I field does not imply imminent price decline. In particular, note that the Cars remain clustered at 60~75. Their occupants are not losing faith yet. Maybe just a little shakeout next week, and then a cheery mood as springtime arrives.
On the other hand, there could be a serious decline in prices ahead. The yield curve inverted in 2023, which often leads to declining prices a year later. The moody field has been extended for some time, and is turning red. Bot SPXS and FAZ.
Blog: Week 1, Jan 6 (Daily)
Stock markets were exuberant at the end of 2023. On Tuesday Jan 2 many tech tags turned red. They declined more on Wednesday. On Thursday the Industrials tag turned red, and on Friday the Real Estate tag turned red. The Cars are restless in the happy zone. Today one turned green while another turned red. Increasing red at a high level is not a positve sign.The Jan 2 note explains there is a 40% probability of a January price decline this year. The Jan 5 note says we have arrived at a small sell signal. So far, the SP500 is only down 1.5% from year-end.
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