Daily: Week 24, June 15 (Blog)
Jun 14, 2024Price indexes closed about unchanged, but the Moody Field tags moved lower, especially the Cars. The coming weeks will show whether or not that is a negative sign. Meanwhile, this author is taking a sabbatical for the summer, returning in September. Time to review, and test alternative theories. If you like this site, send an email or text.
Jun 13, 2024A day of hesitaion at new high. Toronto stocks were weaker. All the Cars fell and all switched back to red. The S&I positions remain happy, while the Cars are sad. I think of the S as the players, the I as the coaches, and the C as the public audience at the game.
Jun 12, 2024Reported CPI held unchanged in May. That got a price good jump in the morning. In the afternoon the Fed held interest rates unchanged, saying their restrictive monetary policy needs to last longer. Tags were mostly up, with the interest rate sensitive tags (Real Estate and Utilities) turning green.
Jun 11, 2024A majority of the tags, 20 of 31, moved lower. The S&P tried to dip down thru yesterday's prices but fully recovered and closed up on the day. Will be interesting to see by the end of the week whether prices or tags point the true direction.
Jun 10, 2024Price indexes moved marginally higher after the usual Monday morning 'back to the office' dip. The Moody Field tags were mostly unchanged, some lower. European stocks fell following right-swing election results. This week on Wednesday comes another interset rate setting, with economy comments from the US Federal Reserve. Normally stocks are stable during the wait from now till then.
Daily: Week 23, June 8 (Blog)
Jun 7, 2024Again mostly no change in stocks. Gold and copper and bonds all took a hit. The Cars moved significantly lower, and are now red. Trend across the field remains negative. Only 1/3 of the S&I players are wearing green.
Jun 6, 2024Mostly no change. The OEX and NDX tags (top 100 stocks) turned green.
Jun 5, 2024Big jump open and further rise to new high close on the S&P and Nasdaq. Once again the market starts rising when most of the tags have become red. The field position does not even need to be below 50.
Jun 4, 2024Leading price indexes closed a bit higher, while the Cars moved lower. That is opposite of the 'unusual action' discussed May 30. Most of the Sector tags were unchanged, but six Index tags declined. The important NYA tag turned red, and the NAZ tag, still green, backed below 50. The Trend on the field is now five up versus twenty-six down.
Jun 3, 2024A relatively quiet day, with continuity from the bullish action by the Cars last Thursday and Friday. Long-term interest rates appear to be resuming their decline. The importance of that was discussed last month.
Daily: Week 22, June 1 (Blog)
May 31, 2024Market prices sagged to mid-day, and then powered higher. Cars were higher all thru the morning dip. As discussed yesterday, the anomaly of unanimously higher Cars while the price indexes are lower has led to strong rallies twice in the past six weeks. A newly discovered aspect of Moody Field!
May 30, 2024Moved the stats panels to the right to make room for the leftward moving cars. Unusual action today. All the Cars were up, while the index prices moved lower. Cars represent prices of all listed stocks. Normally Cars rise or fall with index prices. This anomaly happened also Apr 19 and May 1, both significant bottoms. Two more S&I tags turned red today, and the game ball is now leading all tags lower in the sad zone.
May 29, 2024Price indexes fell 1%, but sentiment fell a lot more. Eight S&I tags fell wothy of note (more than 3 points), and three more turned red, including the SPX tag. Median Cars dropped to 42, well below where they have been hovering lately at 50. Bearish sentiment is increasing....
May 28, 2024Many down tags after the long weekend. Four more S&I tags turned red, including the important OEX (top 100 S&P) and NDX (top 100 Nasdaq). The cars are mostly red, hanging around 50.
Moody Field turned bullish on May 3. There was a rise. Now, only three weeks later, the field is turning bearish again.
Daily: Week 21, May 25 (Blog)
May 24, 2024Steady market, with some residual weakness, ahead of the long weekend. Cars were up. The median bounced to 53, after three days of down.
May 23, 2024Market prices started even, or higher, but by the end of the day all indexes were lower. It was a big down day for the Cars. The median position for cars fell from 61 to 49. Plus, three more S&I turned red, and their field positions are sliding. The problem is an up-tick in interest rates, especially the 1, 2, and 5-yr terms. The recent price stall is resolving to the downside.
May 22, 2024Markets remain stalled. A mid-day dip was followed by a rally that continued after hours. This is the second day of Cars moving lower. All three taxis and two of the sports cars turned red. Maybe just a pout, since the median car position remains in the happy zone.
May 21, 2024Four days with largely No Change for the S&I tags. The Cars were mostly a couple of points lower, even though the S&P 500 closed up 0.25%. The DJ Transports tag turned red.
May 20, 2024The tags are green. The rise stalled, as you can see at left. Today Canadian markets were closed in memory of Queen Victoria. Next week US markets are closed for Memorial Day. People in both countries like to use this intervening week for travel holidays.
Daily: Week 20, May 18 (Blog)
May 17, 2024Markets continue resting. Most of the tags were No Change. None were up or down worthy of note, and none changed trend direction. Presently 30 of 31 tags are trending up. Click the pic to see the panels. On May 3 in Daily, and on May 4 in the Blog, Moody Field turned bullish. The field remains bullish. Trends can run for a while...
May 16, 2024Markets resting, tags also. Likely a reaction coming to the latest rise. A check of whether the bull market is real. Does your selling meet a bid, and does the price then rise above your selling price?
May 15, 2024CPI came in 0.1% below expectations, so the markets gapped up to open, and continued rising thru the day. Most of the tags moved up as well. The overall market trend remains upward. However, the Energy tag turned red from above 90 on May 1. Today it is still red, and dropped below 70.
May 14, 2024A rally thru the afternoon raised Dow .3, Naz .75%. Tomorrow is the release of monthly CPI report at 8:30 AM. PPI reported today showed a rise above expected, but that news did not impact prices.
May 13, 2024Moody Field is showing a near unanimous uptrend, with 28 of the 31 tags now rising. Half the tags rose further today. Tag positions are approaching the upper end of the happy zone, nearing the early stage of exuberance.
Daily: Week 19, May 11 (Blog)
May 10, 2024A quiet Friday, with the S&P 500 up 0.2%. Notice that the Cars were all lower while the S&I were mostly higher. Tag positions are centred in the happy 50 to 70 zone now. Almost all tags are green, chasing the ball and the flags.
May 9, 2024Tags all well up again. The Financial tag turned green and went to 75 after three weeks in red at +/- 70. The Cars are surging, which means more and more stocks are rising above recent trading levels. Lots of time yet for these tags to achieve the exuberant zone. Bond price action remains favorable.
May 8, 2024A mid-week resting day. Prices closed near unchanged. Cars went up and down, and most of the S&I tags were no change.
May 7, 2024The price rise stalled, but four more S&I turned green. The game ball is now in the exuberant zone, with a few tags, and the Indexes heading that way.
May 6, 2024The SPX tag turned green today, confirming the bullish situation. The Cars were all up again, fourth day in a row, with the median position up another ten points. S&I are now majority trending up, also with a rising median position.
Daily: Week 18, May 4 (Blog)
May 3, 2024Interest rates broke below a three-week topping range. The indexes jumped in reponse, and held thru the day, a Friday. The field has been looking bearish since early April, but that changed today..... The field on May 1 had 17 of 22 S&I tags in red. The median position had been 50 for two weeks. Today six of the S&I tags turned green, and the median moved to 55. The Cars are on third day up, with median up 15 points.
May 2, 2024Rally in the bond market, especially corporate bonds, which means an easing of interest rates. All the Cars were higher, some substantialy up. The median car rose 6 points.
May 1, 2024
The FOMC announced at 2:00 PM that Quantitative Tightening will be slowed in June.
Prices rallied in response. Chairman Powell's speech concluded an hour later.
Soon after, prices fell right back. The Cars ran up with prices,
but the S&I mostly moved lower, and three more turned red. The game ball is now down the field at 14.
When all is low and red, sometimes the market bounces, but not sure when.
Apr 30, 2024The S&I tags were balanced between up and down today, but all the Cars moved lower. The New York cars had an especially poor day. The NY Taxi fell 14 points, the NY Sports Car fell 9 points, and the NY Jalopy fell 5 points. The Cars are the rapid-response crew, illustrating changing sentiment faster than S&I.
Apr 29, 2024Most tags rose today. Elon Musk visited China on the weekend, to discuss self-driving and data security. His reported success made Tesla stock jump 15% today. That put the whole market, including bonds, in a cheerful mood.
Daily: Week 17 (Apr 27 Blog)
Apr 26, 2024Someone did a dance, and the markets gapped up on the open, and contiued rising thru the day. The NDX and the Info tags both turned green and rose well. Meta and Google sentiments influence hundreds of other stocks. This week the Nasdaq gained 4.2% while the Dow only gained 0.6%.
Apr 25, 2024Someone stumbled, and the markets gapped down on the open. They attempted to recover by the close. Utilities and Staples again led the rise. Cars were lower again. Interest rates, from 1-year to 20-year terms, all closed at new highs for the year. Notice that the inverted yield curve (2-yr 5%, 10-yr 4.7%) remains in effect.
Apr 24, 2024A mixed price close, some sectors up and some down. The strongest sectors were the defensive issues - Utilities and Staples. The Cars fell back from yesterday's gain.
Apr 23, 2024Nice gap up and rise, S&P 500 gained 1.2%. All the Cars rose, by a relatively substantial amount. The median Car went up by 10 points. It seems to be a natural reaction after two weeks of decline, as expected last Friday. However, only six of the S&I tags were up today, while most were unchanged.
Apr 22, 2024No gap down, instead a rally from the opening. Prices faded into the close. Cars rose a few points, but most of the S&I were unchanged. The only notable change on the field was the Crypto tag moving up from near zero to above 30.
Daily: Week 16 (Apr 20 Blog)
Apr 19, 2024The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both moved lower, but the Dow gained half a percent. All the Cars were higher today, which is unusual when the S&P moves lower. This year that happened Feb 12 and Apr 8&9. Both those times were followed by a gap down open the next trading day, and then a 1~2 day rally.
Apr 18, 2024Prices lower again. Some of the Cars went up. Many of the Sectors were unchanged. NDX and the Info tag have moved into the despondent zone.
Apr 17, 2024Prices moved lower again. All the field Indexes declined.
The median S&I is now at 50, while the median Car is at 37.
Apr 16, 2024Stocks traded in a close range today, with the Dow closing 0.2% higher, the Nasdaq closing 0.1% lower. However, most of the Moody Field tags moved lower, a few were unchanged, and none moved higher. The Cars have declined on four of the past five days. That suggests a short-term bounce may occur. A bounce from here does not change the bearish configuration.
Apr 15, 2024The S&P 500 dropped 1.2%, and did not bounce. Almost all tags moved lower, as you can see at left. The game ball held steady at 18. The tags tend to chase that ball. Presently the median S&I tag is at 57, which provides plenty of room to move left.
Daily: Week 15 (Apr 13 Blog)
Apr 12, 2024Another down day, with three more S&I tags turning red, including the important NYA. The game ball is now at 18 and players on the field are chasing it. Only two tags rose - Energy and Gold, inflation-linked sectors. The last two Cars turned red, putting the flags at the bottom of the range. Lesson versus yesterday is to follow the field, not individual stock price action!
Apr 11, 2024Strong rise today in AAPL, plus new highs in AMZN and GOOG, so closed the short again (2% loss). One short try per month in 2024, each closed at a loss. My current interpretation of Moody Field seems wrong so far. Time for more study.
In spite of that apparent strength, six of the Index tags moved lower and the Financials turned red.
Apr 10, 2024Big drops today in all the Cars. The CPI came in at 0.1% above expectations. The S&P 500 gapped down on the open, and then oscillated flat all day. No recovery, no further drop. Bot 1/4 position in SPXS yesterday and filled the rest of the position with three more buys thru the course of today.
Apr 9, 2024Markets dipped mid-morning, but recovered by the close. Its funny that even when the SPX price was lower, all the Cars were higher. Tomorrow we get the latest US inflation readings.
Apr 8, 2024Quiet day. Markets seem to be waiting for the CPI and Fed Notes due on Wednesday. Gold price up again with steady strong trading volume. Someone said central banks are buying.
Daily: Week 14 (Apr 6 Blog)
Apr 5, 2024Market indexes rose today, recovering most of yesterday's drop. The shorter-term cars rose, but not enough to turn green. Even with the price rise, five of the eight Index tags moved lower today, and six are now in red. Turning red this week were NDX on Tuesday, DJI and DJT on Wednesday, SPX on Thursday, and OEX on Friday. Most are above 60, which means plenty of downside room.
Apr 4, 2024Markets were up until 2 PM, and then commenced a two-hour slide into the close. No apparent reason (news) to cause the price decline, so must be a case of the supply/demand balance changing. Compare the field today with the field last Friday, Mar 28. The game ball has dropped from 78 to 45, the flags from 68 to 36. Moody Field is warning that sentiment is changing from bullish to bearish.
Apr 3, 2024Quiet day with a bias to the downside. A majority of tags, across all three groups, are presently happy and exuberant. However, more than half the tags are now in a red, declining trend. The gold price rally, discussed on Mar 4, has continued. The Gold tag was green but below 30 then, today it is still green, at 64.
Apr 2, 2024Gap down opening. Four of the S&I tags turned red. The Cars dropped a lot, only two remain green. No corporate news other than slowing sales at Tesla. Main influence was a further rise in long-term interest rates.
Apr 1, 2024Gold and oil prices rose to new recent highs. Longer-term interest rates and the USD also moved sharply higher. The nine Cars all fell and the Taxis turned red. The S&I tags did not change much, some moved up a point or two.
View the first quarter Jan ~ Mar 2024.
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